China Development High Level Forum Hot Discussion on "Dual Carbon": Key to Technological and Institutional Innovation

China Development High Level Forum Hot Discussion on "Dual Carbon": Key to Technological and Institutional Innovation

It has been more than three years since China proposed the goal of peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, which has led to significant changes in the domestic economy. Looking at the world, carbon neutrality is gradually being put on the agenda of different economies.

In the process of achieving this goal involving energy reform, many topics that have been discussed include how to balance development and change, how to scientifically set carbon neutrality goals, how investment and financing will be affected and how they will affect carbon reduction. At the 2024 annual meeting of the China Development Forum held from March 24th to 25th, these topics were widely mentioned and discussed.

"Carbon reduction and growth used to be a conflicting relationship, but now it has transformed into a mutually beneficial and win-win relationship." Liu Shijin, Chief Advisor of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development and former Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that achieving carbon reduction goals through innovation is beneficial for developed countries to gain new growth momentum, and more important for developing countries. In fact, green development can achieve economic and social modernization.

"There are many market failures now, which are actually caused by insufficient research and development. Faced with unexpected investments in global carbon neutrality, Professor Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics believes that overcoming market failures requires good policies and clear directions, as well as reducing capital costs.".

Promoting growth through change, the key is technological and institutional innovation

At the COP28 conference held in December last year, the most noteworthy was the first proposal to transform away from fossil fuels, while also proposing to double the growth of renewable energy and double energy efficiency by 2030. Recently, the news that some large multinational automotive companies have announced their withdrawal from electric vehicle development has attracted widespread attention. In addition, as this year marks the global election year, geopolitical conflicts are still ongoing, and market concerns about policy uncertainty, energy shocks, and other factors have increased.

Liu Shijin believes that to accelerate green transformation, firstly, the long-term goal of achieving carbon neutrality cannot be shaken or retreated; Secondly, we need to implement responsibilities and improve incentive mechanisms; Once again, the growth target of green and low-carbon industries should be appropriately raised, and the replacement speed of new technologies and industries should be accelerated.

Goals determine expectations, and addressing global climate change has significant externalities, and the certainty of goals is crucial. However, in the process of transformation, externalities can also cause concerns among enterprises and governments about costs and profits, affecting the driving force of transformation.

However, Liu Shijin pointed out that the relationship between carbon reduction and growth used to be a conflicting one, but now it has transformed into a mutually beneficial and collaborative one. Realizing carbon reduction goals through innovation is beneficial for developed countries to gain new growth momentum, while for developing countries, it is actually achieving economic and social modernization through green development.

"Only with low-carbon pressure can new technologies and materials be used." Xu Jigang, Global Senior Partner of Roland Berger and Vice President of Greater China, said in an interview with First Financial News that low-carbon pressure is first reflected in demand driven changes. While suppressing traditional energy demand, it will also generate new demand and drive new markets, such as new fuels such as biodiesel. Ultimately, demand driven technological progress and cost reduction will also bring about supply side transformation and upgrading, creating more new quality productivity.

Xu Jigang believes that companies should not only view carbon emissions as a burden, but also as a business. "In the current trend, there may not be a true priority relationship between transformation and development. Transformation is the only choice for development. Without considering the development of transformation, it may increase the possibility of future elimination." He believes that the earlier a company adapts to the trend, the earlier it will have a new competitive advantage.

"We need to realize that compared to ten or twenty years ago, addressing climate change and achieving carbon neutrality is no longer just sitting idly by, but has already invested a lot of manpower, material resources, and financial resources in research and development and industrial investment." Liu Shijin said.

But to accelerate the "dual carbon" process, Liu Shijin believes that the key still lies in technological and institutional innovation, and we must stay ahead. "Fundamentally speaking, human society's response to climate change relies on comprehensive and systematic technology, innovation, and the development of low-carbon green industries driven by it are the fundamental measures to address climate change, and the key to dealing with various contradictions and rationalizing complex relationships."

Stern also mentioned from an investment perspective that in the face of market failures in the investment field, there is still a need for clearer policies and directions to encourage research and development and drive investment. "Investment in the field of climate governance can sometimes be Keynesian and sometimes driven by market returns, but we still need to see what the expectations are, such as where the economy is headed. These are the most important things, which means we need to have strategic path choices to achieve such a transformation," Stern said.

Reduce capital costs and leverage market forces

"Of course, in the process of achieving the 'dual carbon' goal, there were also deviations at the beginning, such as some places implementing power restrictions and sports style carbon reduction. The central government promptly corrected the problems and proposed to shift from energy consumption dual control to carbon emissions dual control as soon as possible." When it comes to implementing responsibilities and improving incentive mechanisms, Liu Shijin said that with the proposal of the 'dual carbon' goal, important changes have occurred at all levels of domestic society. However, to accelerate the transition from energy consumption dual control to carbon emissions dual control, we also need to actively create conditions and propose carbon reduction quantitative indicators that are suitable for achieving the 'dual carbon' goal.

He further pointed out that this quantitative indicator should include both the national level and the levels of various provinces, cities, counties, and districts, and further decompose into various industries and enterprises, and establish a verifiable and accountable responsibility system. At the enterprise level, a carbon footprint capture and carbon account accounting system should be widely established, and on this basis, more enterprises should be promoted to enter the carbon emission market.

"In the past, when we talked about carbon reduction, it was a combination of voluntary and mandatory measures, and perhaps more emphasis was placed on voluntary measures. However, in such an urgent situation of emission reduction pressure, at least universal mandatory emission reduction should be implemented in the production sector. Only by establishing a strong quantitative responsibility system can we stimulate strong and sustainable emission reduction motivation at all levels, especially for enterprises, and improve the efficiency of the carbon market. Liu Shijin believes that the carbon reduction responsibility system, carbon accounts, and other aspects belong to the construction of emission reduction system facilities. One important reason for the insufficient progress in the past is the high cost, which includes both technical and transaction costs.".

Stern mentioned that companies cannot go deeper in energy transformation often because there is not enough time, and this is difficult to solve solely through carbon pricing and carbon markets, and more needs to be done. He pointed out that there is a need for mixed financing methods and more participation from multilateral cooperative banks to reduce funding costs, especially in emerging markets.

Regarding the different roles of policies (including standards and subsidies) and markets in green transformation, Xu Jigang told reporters that transformation is often the result of both internal and external factors working together. It is important to consider the different needs of different stages. From international experience, the initial stage cannot be separated from policy guidance and support. However, as the industrial chain or enterprise develops, it is more necessary to rely on the market, and the latter's role will be more obvious.

It is worth noting that during the dialogue between Bai Zhong'en, Dean of the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, and Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, Cook also mentioned the important role of artificial intelligence in the field of carbon neutrality. He said that without the use of artificial intelligence, Apple could not have achieved the current level of resource recycling.

"It (AI) has brought fundamental changes, bringing new tools to the toolbox, making every company more likely to achieve their carbon neutrality goals. At the intersection of artificial intelligence and sustainable development, there will definitely be a lot of innovation in the coming years," Cook said.

中国发展高层论坛热议“双碳”：关键在技术和制度创新

距离中国提出“碳达峰、碳中和”目标已有3年多时间，国内经济也因此发生重要变化。放眼全球，碳中和逐渐被不同经济体提上日程。

在实现这个涉及能源改革的目标过程中，被讨论较多的话题包括如何平衡发展与变革、如何科学设定碳中和目标、投融资将受到怎样影响又如何作用于碳减排。在3月24日～25日召开的中国发展高层论坛2024年年会上，这些话题都被广泛提及和讨论。

“减碳与增长以前是一种相互冲突的关系，现在转化为了相互协同共赢的关系。”中国环境与发展国际合作委员会中方首席顾问、国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦认为，通过创新实现减碳目标，对发达国家来说有利于它们获得新的增长动力，对发展中国家而言更重要，实际上通过绿色发展可以实现经济社会的现代化。

“现在有很多的市场失灵，其实是研发不够导致的市场失灵。”面对全球碳中和领域的投资不及预期，伦敦政治经济学院教授尼古拉斯·斯特恩认为，战胜市场失灵，需要好的政策和明确的前进方向，也要降低资金成本。

以变革促增长，关键是技术和制度创新

去年12月召开的COP28大会上，最令人关注的是首次提出要转型脱离化石能源的目标，同时提出到2030年可再生能源增长两倍，能效提高一倍。而最近，部分大型汽车跨国企业宣布退出电动车开发的消息引起广泛关注。加上今年是全球大选年，地缘冲突还在持续，市场对政策不确定性、能源冲击等担忧有所提升。

刘世锦认为，加快绿色转型，首先，实现碳中和的长期目标不能动摇或者后退；其次，要落实责任，完善激励机制；再次，绿色低碳产业的增长目标应适当调高，新技术、新产业的替代速度要加快。

目标决定预期，应对全球气候变化具有巨大的外部性，目标的确定性很关键。但在转型过程中，外部性特点也会引发企业、政府对成本、盈利的担忧，影响转型动力。

不过，刘世锦指出，减碳与增长以前是一种相互冲突的关系，但现在转化为了相互协同共赢的关系。通过创新实现减碳目标，对发达国家来说有利于它们获得新的增长动力，对发展中国家而言实际上是通过绿色发展来实现经济社会的现代化。

“有低碳的压力才有新技术、新材料的使用。”罗兰贝格全球高级合伙人及大中华区副总裁许季刚在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，低碳压力首先体现为需求拉动的变化，在抑制传统能源需求的同时，也会催生全新的需求、拉动全新的市场，比如生物柴油等新燃料。最终，需求拉动的技术进步、成本下降，也将带来供给端转型升级，创造更多的新质生产力。

许季刚认为，企业不能只把碳排放视为负担，更应该作为生意。“（当前趋势下）在转型和发展之间，可能没有真正的优先级关系，转型是发展的唯一选择。不考虑转型的发展，或许会增加未来的淘汰可能。”他认为，越早顺应趋势的企业，将越早拥有新的竞争优势。

“我们要意识到，与十年前、二十年前相比，应对气候变化，实现碳中和，不再是坐而论道，而是已经投入了大量人力、物力、财力，进行研发和产业投资。”刘世锦说。

但要加速“双碳”进程，刘世锦认为，关键依然是技术创新和制度创新，而且要走在前面。“从根本上来讲，人类社会应对气候变化靠的是全面系统的技术，创新及其带动的低碳绿色产业发展是应对气候变化的治本之策，是处理各种矛盾、理顺复杂关系的关键所在。”

斯特恩也从投资角度提到，面对投资领域的市场失灵，依然需要政策和前进方向更加明确，以此鼓励研发、推动投资。“（气候治理领域的）投资有时候是凯恩斯式的，有时候是市场回报（驱动的），但还是要看看预期是什么，比如经济到底往哪里走？这些才是最主要的，也就是我们要有战略性的路径选择，才能实现这样的转型。”斯特恩表示。

降低资金成本，发挥市场力量

“当然我们在实现‘双碳’目标过程中，开始时也出现过偏差，比如有的地方搞拉闸限电、运动式减碳。中央政府发现问题及时纠正，提出要尽快由能耗双控转向碳排放双控。”提到落实责任、完善激励机制，刘世锦表示，随着“双碳”目标提出，国内社会各个层面都已经出现重要变化，但要加快由能耗双控转向碳排放双控的转换，还要积极创造条件，提出与实现“双碳”目标相适应的减碳量化指标。

他进一步指出，这一量化指标，应该既包括全国层面的，也包括各个省市县区层面的，再进一步分解到各个行业和企业，并建立起可核查、可追责的责任体系。在企业层面，则应普遍形成碳足迹捕获和碳账户核算体系，在此基础上推动更多企业进入碳排放权市场。

“以往我们讲减碳是自愿和强制相结合，可能更多的还是强调自愿。但是在减排压力如此紧迫的情况之下，至少在生产领域应当实行普遍的强制性减排，只有建立起强有力的量化责任体系，才能够激发各个层面特别是企业强劲、持久的减排动力，碳市场才能够提高效能。”刘世锦认为，减碳责任体系、碳账户等都属于减排制度设施的建设，过去进展不够快的一个重要原因是成本过高，既包括技术成本也包括交易成本。

斯特恩提到，企业在能源转型方面不能走得更深，往往是因为没有那么多时间，而这仅靠碳定价、碳市场难以解决，还需要做得更多。他指出，需要有混合的融资方法、更多多边合作银行的参与，让资金成本降下来，尤其是把新兴市场的融资成本降下来。

对于政策（包括标准、补贴）和市场在绿色转型中的不同作用，许季刚对记者表示，转型往往是内因和外因共同发挥作用的结果，要看到不同阶段的不同需要，从国际经验来看，初始阶段离不开政策的引导和支持，但随着产业链或企业发展，则更需要依靠市场，后者的作用也会更为明显。

值得注意的是，在清华大学经济管理学院院长白重恩与苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆·库克对话过程中，库克还提到了人工智能在碳中和领域的重要作用。他表示，如果没有使用人工智能，苹果不可能实现当前资源循环利用的水平。

“它（AI）带来了根本性的变化，使得工具箱中有了新的工具，使得每一家公司都更有可能实现他们碳中和的目标。在人工智能以及可持续发展之间的交叉点，未来几年中一定会有很多创新。”库克说。